OpenAI’s Financials Leak: Revenue, Costs, and a Potential Red Ink
AI
OpenAI
Microsoft
Revenue Share
Compute Costs
Inference
TechCrunch
Financial Analysis
8
Reality Check
Media Hype
6/10
Real Impact
8/10
What is the Viqus Verdict?
We evaluate each news story based on its real impact versus its media hype to offer a clear and objective perspective.
AI Analysis:
The leak delivers a powerful dose of realism to the booming AI market. While hype surrounding generative AI remains high, these financial details force a critical assessment of long-term sustainability, suggesting a significant difference between current exuberance and the actual operational costs and revenue streams of key players like OpenAI.
Article Summary
A trove of leaked documents, obtained by tech blogger Ed Zitron and reported by TechCrunch, are shedding light on the financials of OpenAI, painting a more complex picture than previously understood. Microsoft is paying OpenAI a 20% revenue share, totaling $493.8 million in 2024 and jumping to $865.8 million in the first three quarters of 2025. Based on these figures, analysts estimate OpenAI’s 2024 revenue was at least $2.5 billion and $4.33 billion for the first nine months of 2025, although previous reports from The Information suggest a $4 billion 2024 revenue figure and $4.3 billion in revenue for the first half of 2025. Critically, OpenAI is spending heavily on inference – the compute costs associated with running its AI models – with projected spend of $3.8 billion in 2024 increasing to $8.65 billion in the first nine months of 2025. This raises concerns, given the company’s reliance on Microsoft Azure for compute, and the possibility that its revenue may not be enough to cover these significant operating expenses. The documents also highlight that OpenAI's training expenses are largely non-cash, a benefit from Microsoft's investment, but the substantial cash outlay for inference is a cause for scrutiny.Key Points
- OpenAI is receiving $493.8 million in revenue share from Microsoft in 2024 and $865.8 million in the first three quarters of 2025.
- OpenAI's inference compute costs are projected to be $3.8 billion in 2024 and $8.65 billion in the first nine months of 2025.
- The leaked documents suggest OpenAI’s revenue may not be sufficient to cover its substantial spending on inference, potentially impacting the inflated valuations of AI companies.